Why sea surface temperatures are dropping
For a few years, Joe Bastardi and Dr. Arthur Viterito have been testing their hypothesis that thermohaline circulation is the cause of the global warming that has been observed. However, as Dr. Viterito says, there have been signs this year that the thermohaline circulation is weakening, sea surface temperatures are reducing and, as a result, 2025 may be a watershed moment in climate history
Thermohaline circulation is a component of the general oceanic circulation.
It continually replaces seawater at depth with water from the surface and slowly replaces surface water elsewhere with water rising from deeper depths.
The process involves cold, dense water sinking in polar regions, particularly in the North Atlantic and near Antarctica, and spreading into the full extent of the ocean.
This sinking water is replaced by surface water, setting up the circulation. Thermohaline circulation plays a crucial role in transporting heat, nutrients and other materials vast distances, influencing regional and global climate patterns.
As we noted in a previous article, according to a 2024 study by Japanese researcher Dai Ato, sea surface temperature plays a dominant role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels. As sea temperatures rise, more CO2 is released into the atmosphere.
Conversely, colder water can hold more dissolved carbon dioxide so when sea temperature decreases, the ocean absorbs more CO2 from the atmosphere.
As I reported a short while ago, the preliminary data from the Global Centroid Moment Catalogue (“GCMT” or “Quick Catalogue”) are showing a sharp downturn in mid-ocean seismic activity for this year (1/1 through 4/13).
As I’ve also discussed, less mid-ocean seismic activity indicates less intense geothermal flux along mid-ocean ridges and rises, and this should cause the thermohaline circulation to weaken. In turn, thermohaline weakening results in the following:
- Reduced heat storage in the Indo-Pacific and Western Atlantic Warm Pools.
- Weakened western boundary currents.
- Reduced heat flow into the Arctic, diminishing the Arctic Amplification. [Arctic Amplification is the phenomenon where the Arctic region is warming at a faster rate than the rest of the world. The loss of sea ice is one of the most cited reasons for this acceleration.]
We are starting to see signs of these phenomena unfolding. As for the Info-Pacific Warm Pool, the most recent maps from Climate Reanalyzer (slide 1 in the attached PowerPoint*) and NOAA’s Operational Forecast maps (slide 2) clearly show a decline in SSTs [sea surface temperatures].
[*Note: There is no PowerPoint attached. We assume the slides being referred to are the images below.]
(Graphics are from ClimatereAnalyzer.org, NOAA and the DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute)
These two warm pools serve as “capacitors” for the Kuroshio (North Central Pacific) and Gulf Stream Currents (North Atlantic), and we see significant temperature declines for each of these currents (slides 4 through 6).
The Greenland Current is also showing signs of cooling (slide 7).
Indirect evidence of a reduced Artic Amplification can be seen in the snow cover graph for Greenland (slide 8).
Here we see a trend towards greater snow cover, commencing with a noticeable jump in January of this year.
Although VERY early in the cycle, these events have all the earmarks of an inflection point. If the trend continues, I have a feeling that 2025 may be a watershed moment in recent climate history.
Right or wrong, I applaud our subscriber base’s patience with me putting this on despite what has been vitriolic pushback in some circles, even from my side of the ‘anthropogenic global warming’ debate.
It’s not like we have not seen that in other matters, climate etc, and with time, the truth comes out. So, dear reader, we may be approaching the time over the next decade when the test of the idea gives us an answer.
I do not know how someone truly looking for the answer would be opposed to that unless they had other motives.
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Tom
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Ever get the idea that Mother Nature and Father Time know exactly what they are doing at all times and it is man who is dumber than a rock? Man does not deserve to reside on the Earth. We actually deserve a nice place like Neptune.
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MattH
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A significant contribution to the reduction in SST’s and therefore average global temperatures was presaged accurately in January this year by Moffin stating the following;
This month is the apex of the 18.6 year major lunar standstill.
A major lunar standstill occurs when the Moon’s declination reaches a maximum monthly limit, at around 28.72° north or south, whereas a minor lunar standstill occurs when the declination reaches a minimum monthly limit, at around 18.13° north or south.
It can be assumed that there would be global cooling some time during the three year apex of the major lunar standstill as the latitudinal tidal extremes during this time has an effect of dispersing and overturning warm sea surfaces. This combined with the recent equinox king tides exacerbates this dispersion and over turning.
It can be expected the UAH global temperature will drop closer to +4 for December but not lower as the sun is still firing peak activity of this solar cycle out into the solar system.
The recent three year La Nina heated one section of the global sea surfaces while the immediately following El Nino warmed much of the remaining sea surfaces, especially the Pacific ocean.
None of the causes of these El Nino-La Nina swings are adequately explained but geothermal activity appears to play a part.
P.S. It can be folly to try to predict the future.
That is Moffin’s comment
The reduction in geothermal activity as noted in this article is illustrated by the reduction of the warmer water upwelling and Northern Pacific dispersal from the North Eastern coast of Japan as illustrated in the following NOAA three month animation.
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/animation/gif/ssta_animation_90day_large.gif
The following global temperature graph shows the temperature reduction predicted was spot on. Best I buy a lotto ticket.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
It would be nice if the comments section returned to this site.
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