The IPCC’s Moisture Miscalculation
For decades, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and leading climate scientists have treated certain assumptions about Earth’s climate system as indisputable facts.
One of the core tenets of modern climate science has been that as temperatures rise, the atmosphere’s ability to hold moisture increases, leading to more extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, stronger storms, and prolonged droughts in other areas. This belief is baked into nearly every climate model and policy recommendation.
But what happens when one of these foundational assumptions turns out to be wrong? A new study, published in Geophysical Research Letters (2024), suggests that even basic understandings of how warming interacts with atmospheric moisture may need serious revision.
The Assumption: More Heat, More Moisture
One of the most cited principles in climate science is that warming increases the atmosphere’s capacity to hold water vapor, which then amplifies warming through the water vapor feedback loop. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation, a fundamental thermodynamic relationship, predicts that for every degree Celsius of warming, the atmosphere should hold about 7% more water vapor. This is the foundation for numerous climate projections predicting more intense storms and rainfall.
IPCC reports have consistently framed this as a certainty. The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) asserts that “it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land,” and that this warming is directly linked to “increases in atmospheric moisture.”
This narrative has been used to justify climate policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions under the assumption that doing so will mitigate extreme weather, despite the fact that extreme weather events are not demonstrably increasing.
The Reality: Fundamental Flaws in Moisture Assumptions
The latest study in Geophysical Research Letters challenges this dogma by showing that the expected increase in atmospheric moisture has not occurred in key regions, or has followed patterns that contradict previous models.
This means that the direct link between warming and increased atmospheric moisture is, at best, more complex than previously thought. At worst, it indicates that the models driving global climate policy are missing critical factors.
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Herb Rose
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There is no science in the GHG idiots.
They believe that water in the atmosphere is a GHG when everybody with half a brain knows that evaporation is cooling a surface by absorbing 600 calories/gram. This evaporation/cooling occurs even when the temperature is below freezing.
When the water content of the atmosphere (it is not a gas) is .22% it is greater than the CO2 content by a factor of 50. Every gram go CO2 must add 30,000 calories to the surface to overcome the cooling from evaporation to keep the temperature constant. Even when the temperature remains constant, as long as the humidity is not 100%, more water will evaporate. When the level of water in the atmosphere reaches .33% it is 75 times the level of CO2 and every gram of CO2 must now add 45,000 calories to the surface to keep the temperature constant.
People should realize that those who support the AGW are not scientist but part of the scam.
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Len W
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How wet can one get?
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