UK cases drop steadily, so SAGE says huge summer wave coming
Daily UK Covid cases dropped below 100,000 for the first time in weeks today as infections fell for the ninth day in a row — but SAGE modellers are already warning of an ‘exit wave’ this summer.
Another 99,652 Britons tested positive for the virus in the last 24 hours, according to Government dashboard data, marking a 44 per cent fall on the figure last week.
Covid cases are now falling in every region of England and all four home nations in another sign that the Omicron wave is on its way out.
Daily hospital admissions have also remained flat with 2,423 new admissions on January 10, the latest date with data, down by less than a per cent on the previous week.
Sources say ministers intend to scrap Covid passports and widespread WFH guidance in England when Plan B restrictions are reviewed at the end of the month, with the promising numbers making the curbs ‘hard to justify’.
However, daily Covid deaths — which are the biggest lagging indicator — have been creeping up for several weeks. Another 270 were registered today in a 17 per cent rise compared to last Friday.
This is normal. Deaths can lag behind by several weeks.
But rising immunity means there are five times fewer fatalities now compared to the second wave last January, helped by the intrinsically milder Omicron variant.
Despite the encouraging statistics, official modelling made public today has warned there could be a huge rebound in Covid cases and hospitalisations this summer.
In a paper submitted to the Government’s scientific advisory group (SAGE) last week, the team at Warwick University projected up to 10,000 daily admissions in an absolute worst-case scenario.
The modellers admit that they cannot predict the summer wave ‘with any certainty‘, but they are confident there will be a resurgence between May and July ‘due to increased mixing and waning vaccine immunity’.
They add: ‘Precise timing and magnitude of this exit wave is highly dependent on both population behaviour and the scale of the current wave and cannot be predicted with any certainty.’
Government modelling has been criticised throughout the pandemic but there has been intensified scrutiny this winter after several gloomy Omicron projections.
The UK Health Security Agency was censured by the country’s statistics watchdog over a model which had up to a million Britons catching Omicron per day at the peak. Another model, by Professor Lockdown Neil Ferguson, suggested there could be 5,000 deaths from Omicron per day without tougher lockdown curbs.
Neither happened, or came anywhere near.
The latest model by Warwick was submitted to SAGE on January 6 but only made public today as part of the advisory group’s weekly batch of evidence.
Warwick makes clear that its scenarios are not predictions and the wide confidence intervals highlight the uncertainty about how the outbreak will transpire.
The team modelled different rates of social mixing, waning immunity, severity of disease and the generation time of the virus – how long it takes a newly infected Covid case to infect someone else.
It found there could be anywhere between 1,000 and 10,000 daily hospitalisations, according to the upper end of some confidence intervals.
Meanwhile, data from the Government’s shows that, in England, daily infections have dropped nationwide week-on-week for the last seven days.
Fascinating maps show how the virus is burning itself out nationally, with cases falling in roughly 87 per cent of local authorities in the last week.
England is now preparing to ease the restrictions that were brought in to fight Omicron, according to reports.
See more here: dailymail.co.uk
Header image: The Daily Mail
Bold emphasis added
Editor’s note: The likes of SAGE and Neil Master of Disaster Ferguson just can’t help themselves, they have to maintain the fearmongering to ensure a compliant population.
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itsme
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nice to know what the traitors are thinking next…
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Andy
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Yep.
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very old white guy
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the world is officially populated with morons. How we ever managed to get to almost 8 billion is amazing.
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Alan
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That is why free speech has been banned and everybody has been persuaded to sing from the same hymn sheet. That way we cannot identify the morons.
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T. C. Clark
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Very curious…UK is only country now falling back in 7-day moving average….I would not be shocked if it resumes a climb…when will it end mommy? Maybe they should stop testing?…tests lead to more cases, no?
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Andy
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Yes, if we stopped testing today, there would be no ‘pandemic’ by tomorrow.
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Alan
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Exactly, look at Prof Norman Fenton’s work. He got information last summer on the number of tests being carried out and instead of plotting cases, he plotted cases per 10,000 tests and there wasn’t any wave of infection. We are being locked down by the morons running the country for no good reason.
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Andy
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Yep,m out of population of 68 million, only 15 million have actually caught the ‘virus’. That’s just 22% of the population, not even a quarter.
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Boris Badenov
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The Moronic Virus, the only one that needs a test to show if you have it.
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JaKo
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An update on “The Canadian Study:”
As reported by the CBC “News”, the data from that study are being “revised,” wow!
And behold, the Commonwealth saga continues:
Canada is now preparing for a massive surge of “cases,” as reported, you guessed, by the CBC again; and yes, Dr Tam is at the center stage there…
BTW, I recommend looking at these IHME “Projections:”
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
Cheers, JaKo
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Barry
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It’s just too funny let’s do another study and see how we can completely ignore science and go with what our manipulated computer said. Lol . Has the whole world gone insane?
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very old white guy
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Barry, the answer to your question is , yes.
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dnomsed
| #
S – stupid
A – arrogant
G – grifter
E – enema
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T Brew
| #
Sold
All
Governments
Enticements..
.. Seriously Allocating Gregarious Excrement..
Soros And Gates Enterprises..
Thanks Dnomsed, we could play with this one all day. The Food disinformation agency, Force Drugging America, Fuelling Deadly Ailments, For deranged As$+@les and the Central Disease Creation, Criminally deranged Corporations etc where getting a bit too easy to come up with… Just one more and all are welcome to use it:
Professional
Oral
Liars
In
The
Information
Controlling
Institution
Aiding
Nefarious
Scenarios
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very old white guy
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an even bigger wave of mental illness is on the horizon.
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Tom
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With the fake PCR tests, they can create a new wave of fake cases anytime they want. Ignore the entire mountain of lies, propaganda and nonsense and live free. Turn off the TV news and social media crap and it’s like nothing is happening…no fake pandemic.
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coronistan.blogspot.com
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If you know stock charts you know what will happen.
—
The most important thing in my view is that the world understands now that THERE IS NO VIRUS! All what they are doing is based on lies, lies and lies!
All you need to know: THE ENTIRE VIROLOGY HAS BEEN REFUTED! There is no virus, no variant/mutation, and there was never a pandemic! https://www.wissenschafftplus.de
The BGH and the Higher Regional Court Stuttgart have refuted all allegations about the suspected “measles virus”, the infection of measles and the measles vaccination.
TRUST ULTRA TRUST NAOMI – https://www.bitchute.com/video/05OsGCekumz9/
Virology Debunks Corona – https://www.bitchute.com/video/YKktYdEGBRnP/
Blog: https://coronistan.blogspot.com
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Dev
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PCR directs towards biological pathogenicity/causation.
People do no comprehend what proteins are and how much diversity exists within this group of organic chemicals.
Easy to hide chemical insult within this biological domain! & emr for that matter!
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NecktopPC
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Professor Sir Roy Anderson sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), yet he also holds a £116,000-a-year post on the board of GlaxoSmithKline (who owns Pfizer), the company selling swine flu vaccines and anti-virals to the NHS.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1202389/Government-virus-expert-paid-116k-swine-flu-vaccine-manufacturers.html
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